The Center for Global Sustainability (CGS) at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy has many presenters at the 14th Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) Annual Meeting being held from November 30th to December 3rd, 2021.
The IAMC annual meeting is a scientific meeting intended for peer sharing and vetting. The purpose of IAMC Annual Meetings is to:
- Present and discuss the state of the art in integrated assessment modeling;
- Review the status of ongoing community activities including both multi-model studies and the activities of the IAMC Scientific Working Groups;
- Facilitate interaction with collaborating communities;
- Evaluate and revisit the priorities of the integrated assessment community.
Check out our researchers participating in this year's meeting:
Disentangling the Food-Energy-Water Implications of Lifestyle Changes, Technology Substitution & Energy Efficiency in a 1.5C Green Growth Scenario
CGS Participants: Mel George* (PhD candidate), Haewon McJeon
Date & time: Oral session, Nov. 30, 2021 (8:45 AM)
Abstract: Modeling of technology substitution & energy efficiency in Integrated Assessment Models has received more attention than lifestyle changes, even though it has significant potential to contribute to climate change mitigation pathways. We explore, using isolated & blended scenarios, the food-energy-water implications of a broad basket of behaviour changes, efficiency improvements, technology substitutions and availability of negative emission technologies. Our results demonstrate the inherent trade-offs with each of these component scenarios and showcase how a combination of these options in the GCAM-CWF scenario mitigates these impacts on food prices, energy use & water consumption at a lower cost. An initial version of the scenario and assumptions can be found here.
Quantifying Broader Societal Outcomes of A Low-Carbon “Belt and Road Initiative” towards 1.5°C
CGS Participants: Ryna Cui, Jenna Behrendt, Jiehong Lou, Jiawei Song, Alicia Zhao
Date & time: Oral session, Nov. 30, 2021 (11:00 AM)
Abstract: The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is China’s main platform for investing and developing infrastructure in the global south. BRI countries represent over 63% of the global population and 61% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but only 38% of global GDP. China’s recent commitments to stop building overseas coal projects and help other developing countries make the low-carbon transition are critical in addressing global climate change. Our new analysis shows that a low-carbon investment and development strategy in BRI countries will lead to important improvements in health, jobs, and other key societal goals. By post-processing outputs from a global integrated assessment model (GCAM), we find that 10 out of the 17 indices show consistent improvement for BRI countries between 2020 and 2050 across the eight different 1.5°C scenarios analyzed, including an average 34% reduction in premature mortality rate due to decreased PM2.5 and ozone concentrations, a four-fold increase in green job opportunities, and improvements in consumer well-being of energy and food consumption. Many BRI countries tend to produce substantial land-based mitigation under scenarios with large deployment of bioenergy or land sinks for negative emissions, which however creates challenges for BRI countries to fulfill broader societal development priorities under 1.5°C.
Race to Zero - transition pathways of individual industrial sectors in a 1.5°C future
CGS Participants: Sha Yu, James Edmonds, Haewon Mcjeon
Date & time: Oral session, Dec 1, 2021 (9:15 AM)
Abstract: We examine transition of individual industries in 1.5°C pathways in an integrated framework and assess industry-specific and region-specific technology choices and mitigation pathways. Industrial CO2 emissions would decrease from 12Gt in 2020 to under 1Gt by 2050. Individual industries assessed here – iron and steel, cement, chemicals, fertilizer, aluminum, construction, mining, agricultural energy use, and other manufacturing sector – show different decarbonization opportunities. CO2 emissions reduction in 2050 relative to 2015 ranges from 85% to over 150% across industries. To understand implications of industrial decarbonization, we assess the role of energy efficiency, resource efficiency, electrification, hydrogen, and CCS across regions and sectors.
Examining supply and demand drivers of hydrogen deployment in energy transition scenarios
CGS Participants: Patrick O’Rourke (PhD candidate), Haewon Mcjeon
Date & time: Oral session, Dec. 1, 2021 (10:30 AM)
Abstract: Meeting the aims of the Paris Agreement would require significant GHG emissions mitigation by mid-century. While electrification of end uses has been a major focus, hydrogen-based technologies may facilitate CO2 mitigation in difficult-to-electrify sectors. This research investigates hydrogen’s potential contribution by simulating pathways consistent with 1.5°C or 2°C objectives within the GCAM model. A goal of this work is to explore scenarios involving different hydrogen production and end use pathways. Results can inform the potential scale of hydrogen deployment, how specific deployment pathways depend on assumptions, and how hydrogen’s different potential roles affect the energy mix more broadly.
Assessing near-term transition and longer-term physical climate risks of greenhouse gas emissions pathways
CGS Participants: Mel George (PhD candidate), Haewon McJeon
Date & time: Oral session, Dec 3, 2021 (7:45 AM)
Abstract: Financial institutions are increasingly demanding scenario analysis on climate risk, to understand its impact on their asset portfolios. Here we present a consistent framework to explore near term (to 2030) transition risks and longer term (to 2050) physical risks, globally and in specific regions, for a range of plausible greenhouse gas emissions and associated temperature pathways, spanning 1.5-4C levels of long-term warming. By 2050, physical risks deriving from major heatwaves, agricultural drought, heat stress and crop duration reductions depend greatly on the temperature pathway. By 2030, transition risks most sensitive to temperature pathways stem from economy-wide mitigation costs, carbon price increases, fossil fuel demand reductions and coal plant capacity reductions. Considering several pathways with a 2C target demonstrates that transition risks also depend on technological, policy and socio-economic factors.