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How much could Article 6 enhance Nationally Determined Contribution ambition toward Paris Agreement goals through economic efficiency

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Abstract: The Paris Agreement of 2015 uses Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to achieve its goal to limit climate change to well below 2∘C. Article 6 allows countries to cooperatively implement NDCs provided they do not double-count mitigation. We estimate that economic efficiency gains from cooperative implementation of existing NDC goals using Article 6 could reduce the cost of achieving NDC goals in 2030 to all parties by ∼$300×10^9, which if reinvested in additional emissions mitigation could add 9 billion tons CO2/year mitigation, beyond the 8 billion tons CO2/year currently pledged in 2030. We estimate that more than half of the 2030 gains could come from nature-based measures, but long-term potential for nature-based measures is more limited. How much or even if this economic potential can be realized is uncertain and will depend on both the rules and their implementation.

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School Authors: Leon Clarke, Yiyun 'Ryna' Cui, James 'Jae' Edmonds, Sha Yu, Alicia Zhao

Other Authors: Cornelia Auer, Ryan Barrett, Antoine Boirard, Renaud Concordet, Jérôme Hilaire, Otso Manninen, Thessa Beck, David Bresch, Christoph Bertram, Molly Charles, Dawn Holland, Ian Hurst, Elmar Kriegler, Chahan Kropf, Iana Liadze, Theresa Löber, Franziska Piontek, Jihoon Min, Edo Schets, Inga Sauer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Bas van Ruijven