NEW YORK – As nations are currently submitting 2035 NDC climate targets ahead of this year’s COP30, the United Nations (UN) climate conference in Brazil, the Center for Global Sustainability (CGS) at the University of Maryland today launched a new online Country Climate Ambition resource. This website details plausible, high-ambition national pathways and policy implementation actions for 12 major emitting countries, examining current opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within specific national contexts, and tracking progress toward their net-zero and 2035 climate goals under the Paris Agreement. Countries currently include Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Republic of Korea, South Africa, and the United States, with additional countries to be added in 2026. This first-of-its-kind platform launches as many nations are presenting and discussing their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) at the UN Secretary-General’s Special High-Level Event on Climate Action. This new interactive resource can serve as a reference for what constitutes a high ambition 2035 NDC for a set of major economies that would cover all GHGs across all sectors.
“As nations develop and submit their next round of climate targets, ambitious and comprehensive actions are more imperative than ever,” said CGS Director Nate Hultman. “Our new Country Climate Ambition analyses equip policy communities and civil society with detailed analysis of practical policy and technological opportunities that can support stronger 2035 targets and more effective subsequent implementation. Moreover, we also show how these high ambition pathways demonstrate that possible remaining pathways can still limit global warming to achieve globally agreed climate goals and secure a safer climate future for all.”
The Country Climate Ambition analyses explore recommended pathways for reducing GHG emissions that include, for example, electricity decarbonization through renewable energy deployment and fossil phaseout, rapid reductions in methane and other non-CO2 gases, reducing land sector emissions, and accelerated electrification and fuel switching across all end-use sectors to achieve 2035 climate goals.
Key findings for selected countries include:
- Australia achieves a GHG emissions decrease of 69-73% by 2035 from 2005 levels under the CGS high ambition pathway; in comparison, the recently announced official target aims for a 62-70% reduction, where the upper range is in line with CGS’s high ambition assessment.
- South Korea achieves a 59-63% GHG emissions reduction from 2018 levels by 2035 under the CGS high ambition pathway. Key sectoral strategies, such as phasing out coal in electricity and decarbonizing industrial sectors, are outlined in CGS’s April 2025 report.
- Indonesia’s GHG emissions are expected to peak by 2025, followed by immediate reductions under the CGS high ambition pathway to achieve a 46-50% emissions reduction by 2035 from 2023 levels. A new CGS report on Indonesia provides detailed analysis on high ambition pathways for the 2035 NDC and net-zero emissions under varying GDP assumptions.
- Mexico’s GHG emissions are expected to peak before 2025 and decline 47-51% from 2023 levels under the CGS high ambition pathway. A new CGS report on Mexico provides details on the strategies across sectors – including contributions from subnational actors – to reach the high ambition pathway.
CGS research also looks at the aggregate global outcomes based on these high ambition national pathways and finds:
- Together, the high ambition country pathways can deliver a 39-43% reduction in total GHG emissions by 2035 from 2023 levels, and with continued reductions toward net-zero emissions, can enable achievement of a pathway to 1.5°C by the end of the century with a limited duration and extent of overshoot.
- By targeting oil, gas, coal, and waste sectors, global methane emissions can drop 35% from 2020 levels – which is nearly 40% of total GHG reductions between 2020-2035 if measured in methane’s 20-year global warming potential.
- Electricity generation across all sectors contributes to the largest CO2 emissions reduction potential for almost all of the analyzed countries through 2035, requiring a tenfold increase in wind and solar capacity in addition to halving unabated fossil fuel generation from 2020 levels.
“CGS’s high ambition country pathways aim to provide a benchmark for both the existing and the yet-to-be-announced 2035 country NDCs can be compared with,” said Ryna Cui, CGS Associate Director and Associate Research Professor. “Our bottom-up assessments of country pathways take into account the unique factors each of the initial 12 countries analyzed face to provide tailored, actionable recommendations. The Country Climate Ambition project will help countries and stakeholders chart a credible course toward enhanced ambition for a climate-resilient future.”
Explore the Country Climate Ambition website here.
