The Center for Global Sustainability (CGS) recently published a study in npj Climate Action that explores strategies for the United States to achieve an ambitious and feasible 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), employing specific policies from federal and non-federal actors across all sectors. Developing a comprehensive suite of new and expanded policy actions, including extended Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provisions and expanded federal and non-federal climate measures and actions, our first iteration of modeling analysis finds that a comprehensive policy platform of federal, state, and other policies can deliver reductions in net GHGs of 65% below 2005 levels by 2035 in the United States.
As a pivotal player in global climate efforts, the United States announced a comprehensive strategy aimed at ramping up its climate ambition significantly in pursuit of the Paris Agreement goals. With the imperative to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the United States is setting its sights on achieving deeper emissions reductions by 2035. Despite progress, current 2030 targets fall short of the necessary reductions, prompting the urgent need for enhanced near-term ambition to bridge this gap.
Drawing on established actions, including the IRA and major climate policies, the study evaluates potential reductions in greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors under two scenarios. The Current Policies scenario reflects existing, on-the-books climate actions that are fully implemented and that other non-federal actions are supportive of state-level actions. The Enhanced Ambition scenario builds upon existing policies and incorporates new potential measures from federal and non-federal entities aimed at achieving the current 2030 NDC and advancing towards a 2035 NDC aligned with achieving net-zero emissions.
“This analysis demonstrates that the United States can achieve a 65% greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction below 2005 levels by 2035 under robust expansion and accelerated implementation of federal and non-federal policies,” said Alicia Zhao, CGS Research Manager and lead author of the study. “In comparison, existing, on-the-books climate policies are projected to achieve a 44% reduction.”
From 2030 to 2035, the Enhanced Ambition scenario results in continued, significant emissions reductions from the power and transport sectors, which make up 47% and 26% of overall emissions reductions, respectively. However, the scenario also sees more reductions from other sectors like buildings, industry, and methane, which combined make up 20% of overall reductions, compared to the Current Policies scenario.
As the electricity sector ramps up renewable deployment, with solar generation increasing seven fold and wind generation increasing by four fold by 2035, and fossil fuels are retired or retrofitted with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), the electric grid is 96% powered by clean technologies by 2035 and correspondingly, achieves emissions reductions of 94% from 2020 levels under Enhanced Ambition. Accelerated electrification across end-use sectors in the scenario helps achieve emissions reductions of 48% in transportation, 38% in buildings, and 12% in industry by 2035. However, the expansion of electrification and rise of electricity demand poses a significant challenge as barriers such as long permitting processes and the lack of high-capacity, long-distance transmission, the lack of EV charging infrastructure especially for freight trucks, high costs associated with electric appliances, and the scalability of emerging technologies.
"Emerging technologies like hydrogen, CCS, and direct air capture (DAC) offer opportunities to bolster grid reliability and mitigate emissions in hard-to-abate sectors," explained Kowan O’Keefe, co-author of the study and Research Assistant at CGS. "Federal financial incentives and ambitious efforts from both federal and non-federal stakeholders can further propel high-ambition NDCs towards aligning with 1.5°C goals."
The study charts a pathway for a high-ambition 2035 NDC in the United States that shows a key role for both federal and non-federal actors through a suite of expanded and extended policies, actions and measures. This pathway shows the variety of actions needed across key sectors such as power, transportation, buildings, industry, and methane, and introduces carbon dioxide removal technologies while enhancing the land sink. It will be important for federal, state, local, and other non-federal actors to continue crafting and implementing lasting policies to keep the United States on a 1.5°C-compatible pathway.
CGS is refining the analysis based on stakeholder consultations and will release our updated results in the coming months. Download the paper to learn more.
