Join CGS on Tuesday, February 13, 2024, at 12:00 PM to hear Kowan O'Keefe, CGS Research Assistant and PhD student, discuss the impact of external forces on Canadian oil production in a net-zero future.
Abstract: Canada is a major oil- and gas-producing country that has committed into law the goal of achieving net-zero GHG emissions economy-wide by 2050. Modeling analysis was a core element of Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan and Long-Term Strategy and is a vital decision-support tool for understanding potential risks and opportunities associated with Canada’s net-zero transition. One such risk with major domestic political and economic implications is the prospect of reduced Canadian oil production. Whether externally driven through falling global demand for Canadian oil or internally driven through domestic climate policy, significant labor market disruption and stranded assets in the oil and gas sector could result. Thus, pursuit of net-zero both domestically and globally will create challenges for Canadian oil production and could strain relations between the provinces and the federal government. Accordingly, modeling analysis of Canadian net-zero pathways should clearly distinguish between the impacts of domestic climate policy and factors outside Canada’s control to better support domestic climate policy decisions. This analysis uses the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to explore a comprehensive set of net-zero scenarios for Canada. Scenarios analyzed in this study include explicit representation of several existing policies and variation in future domestic policy assumptions. An extensive sensitivity analysis examines the impacts of a range of factors outside Canada’s control.
Join the seminar online here.