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CGS Research Seminar: Ukraine’s energy challenges and the impact of the war on energy and climate aspirations

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Abstract: Ukraine, a large European nation with abundant natural resources, has long been recognized as the “breadbasket of Europe.” Historically, it also played a pivotal role in Soviet industrialization and, by 1990, was the sixth-largest emitter of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. Ukraine’s efforts to rebuild its economy were abruptly disrupted by the Russian invasion. In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and occupied parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, escalating the conflict into a full-scale war in February 2022. This ongoing war has had a severe impact on Ukraine’s population, economy, and energy sector. Despite these challenges, Ukraine achieved EU candidate status and committed to aligning its policies, regulations, and energy and climate goals with those of the European Union. As part of this commitment, Ukraine aims to phase out coal from its power system by 2035 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The government has adopted key strategic energy and climate documents aligned with EU objectives. We use two models to examine Ukraine’s current policies and decarbonization pathways. This presentation will provide an overview of Ukraine's background, explore energy and climate scenarios, and identify key questions for future research.


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