During this session CGS Research Associate Molly Schreier will share research on land use change at critical mineral industrial parks in Indonesia.
Abstract: Since 2009, Indonesia has mandated the development of domestic mineral processing capabilities as a form of commodity downstreaming. However, these activities may pose increasing risks to the land sector, particularly by contributing to deforestation and unanticipated land use change. In this study, we utilize our dataset of industrial parks (IPs) in Indonesia, which documented land acquisition disputes and negative environmental impacts associated with nickel, aluminum, and copper IPs. We develop polygons for 19 critical mineral IPs in Indonesia, employing a combination of open-source materials, Google Earth and Sentinel imagery to assess their environmental footprint in 2024. Next, we perform a 2024 supervised land cover classification of Landsat and Sentinel-1 SAR imagery within 50 km buffers of IPs, targeting land cover classes such as mining areas, settlements, and agriculture. Finally, we will perform stratified sampling by land cover class to examine the temporal patterns of land cover transitions from 2009 to 2024. We expect to find patterns of land banking and mine expansion tied to Indonesia’s nickel policies and global demand for nickel, highlighting areas where government agencies and metal companies can improve environmental management and land use planning.